El Niño is good for copper producers – Mining Expert

As Zambia braces for the effects of El Niño, a phenomenon known for altering weather patterns and reducing rainfall, two of the nation’s economic pillars, mining and agriculture, face contrasting fortunes, according to the mining expert.

Professor Peter Chileshe, a mining expert and lecturer at Copperbelt University, notes that while farmers anxiously monitor forecasts for signs of drought, open pit mining operations see opportunity in the dry, sun-filled months that El Niño often brings. Professor Chileshe explained that “Mining is essentially the opposite of agriculture when it comes to weather. Bad weather for farmers, is often good weather for miners, especially in open pit operations.”

Official data reveals that copper production for the first seven months of 2026 reached 528,767 metric tonnes, marking a modest 1.9% increase from the 518,591 metric tonnes produced during the same period in 2025.

Speaking to the Zambian Business Times (ZBT), Professor Chileshe, expressed cautious optimism about reaching the country’s 2026 1 million copper production target. He emphasized that while the year-to-date growth is marginal, the remaining five months could see significant changes, noting, “Two years are never the same. A lot can happen in the final months of the year.” Professor Chileshe highlighted the impact of weather on open pit mining, which accounts for the majority of Zambia’s copper output. He explained that, unlike agriculture, adverse weather such as reduced rainfall can actually benefit mining operations by enabling longer and more productive mining periods.

With forecasts suggesting an El Niño event and potentially below-normal rainfall, he believes production could accelerate, saying, “Mining is essentially the opposite of agriculture when it comes to the weather. Bad weather for agriculture is good for open pit mining.”