The Last CIA Director to Visit Moscow Carried a Warning—Three Months Later, Russia Invaded

U.S. intelligence reportedly believes Russia is preparing the machinery for a possible call-up. Mobilization exercises in Kaliningrad tested the registration, housing, feeding and arming of recruits, with similar preparations reportedly underway elsewhere. Those drills do not prove that a final order has been issued—but they would allow Russia to move rapidly if Putin gives one.

The war has not become quiet, but Russia’s assault methods have changed. After catastrophic losses among its armored forces, Moscow increasingly shifted toward small infantry groups, motorcycles, civilian vehicles and dispersed attacks. Ukrainian drones, mines and artillery made the large mechanized columns of 2022 and 2023 extraordinarily vulnerable.

A new mobilization could provide Russia with fresh reserves, reinforce exhausted formations and enable broader attacks across several sectors. It would not automatically recreate the opening stages of the invasion, but combined with rebuilt armor, electronic warfare and Russia’s expanding drone forces, it could prepare the ground for a larger campaign in late 2026 or 2027.

Former U.S. intelligence deputy Beth Sanner suggested Ratcliffe may have gone to Moscow to deliver a simple message: Washington knows what Russia is preparing, and Putin should not proceed. That remains analysis; the substance of the meetings is still secret.

The last CIA warning delivered in Moscow preceded the largest European war since 1945. Ratcliffe’s visit does not mean another escalation is inevitable—but it tells us Washington may see something serious enough that a secure phone call was no longer considered sufficient.